April 09, 2007

784 days; The Stalemate Continues

It’s been 785 days, according to the billboard (784 was yesterday). Here in Beirut we are frequently reminded how much our lives have changed the past 785 days. There are 3 billboards in town that I know of that keep track of the number of days since Rafic Hariri was blown up. This particular bill board is standing at the entrance to West-Beirut. The billboard stays the same, the red counter changes.

In a way nothing has changed since that Valentine’s Day in 2005; the bomb crater is still there, the road is still blocked, the investigation hasn’t come up with anything conclusive yet, and the scars on the face of an acquaintance who was having lunch with her husband near the window at the Phoenicia Hotel when the bomb went off have all healed remarkably well.
But other than that, everything has changed.
For some people, the changes have been physical. There have been a number of assassinations and explosions since then, and over a 1,000 Lebanese died in an Israeli bombing campaign last summer. People still lose - on an almost daily basis - limbs, and sometimes lives and/or livelihood to cluster bombs that carpet parts of the south.
For most people however, the changes have been economical. Many people have lost houses and apartments. But the brain drain has been particularly impressive. I’d say about 7 of our friends and acquaintances have left the country to find a job elsewhere.
Others have stayed around; they have had to accept cuts in pay checks, but they are the lucky ones. Some haves been placed temporarily on non-active status, or have been fired. Those with businesses have seen their income go down the drain, sometimes with as much as 75%.

In many ways I am lucky; My neighborhood did not get bombed, most of the family happened to be out of the country or up in the mountains when the bombings took place, and I work with companies that are not affected by the local economy.
Yet life has changed in that I am no longer certain of what the future will bring. It is disconcerting to say the least. I left Holland because I did not like the predictability of life there. Lebanon lacked all predictability, and the chaos was a breath of fresh air. But this crisis seems to have reached a stalemate, and it is difficult to make plans for the future if you don’t have a clear expectation of what that future brings. So now it seems that to some extent a degree of predictability is desirable.

Even Hasan Nasrallah, Hezbollah's leader, appeared to suggest the crisis could become a permanent status quo. "We don't want a civil war. If the stalemate continues for a while until a solution is found or we go to a civil war, then let the stalemate continue.” (Quote comes from this article.)

In the meantime, we keep counting the days. In 4 days we have April 13, always a painful day as it signalled the beginning of Lebanon's civil war in 1975. At least we got passed the 30th anniversary without a hitch.

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